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A question from an Actuaries Institute mock paper, answered and marked. From Actuaries Institute Preparation: A Practical Exam Guide.

Paper — Frequency–severity model18:42
79%Frequency–severity model — marked22/28 marks · 18:42 taken

An insurer expects 120 claims in the period, with an average cost of $4,500 per claim. Estimate aggregate claims cost. Then estimate the cost if claim frequency rises by 10%, assuming average severity is unchanged. State what the estimate does and does not represent.

4/5

Expected claims cost = 120 × $4,500 = $540,000. A 10% increase in frequency gives 132 claims, so cost is 132 × $4,500 = $594,000, an increase of $54,000. This is the expected claims cost.

The method, arithmetic and frequency sensitivity are correct, with units implicit in the values. The response recognises that this is claims cost, not a premium, but does not state the scope assumptions or name important exclusions.

Missed

State that expenses and reinsurance are excluded, and that the calculation treats expected frequency and average severity as given.

Model answerAssuming 120 claims and an average severity of $4,500, expected aggregate claims cost is 120 × $4,500 = $540,000. Claims multiplied by dollars per claim gives dollars. If frequency rises by 10% to 132 claims and severity is unchanged, the estimate is 132 × $4,500 = $594,000, an increase of $54,000. This is expected gross claims cost under the assumptions, not a premium or a full profit measure. Expenses, reinsurance and variation around the expected values are not included.

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